“What’s This Worth?” Thread

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mmmguitar
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“What’s This Worth?” Thread

Post by mmmguitar »

I’m hoping we can civilly discuss and approach a consensus as to what Parker-specific asking price ranges may be considered “fair” and/or negotiable when listing on Fly Clone or referencing outside listings. This post is a very loose starting point, based in US dollar currency:

-As of October 2021, Fly Deluxes and Classics seem to have settled to a range between $1.9k and $2.7k, with outliers of extremely optimistic $3k+ listings hanging around, and some buyers (read: Facebook group members) seemingly willing to pay $4.5k to 6k for “rare” colors.

-The same three or four HSS/S2 Flys seem to be fetching anywhere between $2k and 3.2k as they change hands.

-Mojo Flys have been missing from the resale market, as of late. They were previously observed selling for anywhere from $2k to 3.5k.

-Fly Supremes and Artists have spiked in asking prices over the past year, ranging from $3k to 6k asking prices. In 2020, Artists were regularly listed for sub-$2k (in “player’s condition”, mind you), with Supremes for between $2k and 4k (depending on era and color; with post-2011 Ocean Blue fetching some of the highest prices I’ve seen).

-Very few DF models seem to pop up, anymore - The last DF842 I saw listed never should have left the factory, but had a listing price in the $3k range.

-NiteFlys are ranging from sub-$1k into Fly prices (Even Guitar Center is asking $2k+ for some NiteFlys).

**Anyone wanting to spitball ideal or acceptable price ranges for Parker P-series guitars, basses, jazz boxes, acoustics, and other Parker-branded items are encouraged to do so.**

-Fishman-era piezo saddles for Flys/NiteFlys are currently being listed for $100 per saddle, plus shipping. I humbly request our community not be shy in putting forward desired ballpark price ranges informed by gut mathematics, alone; so we can see where the consensus trends. To start with: A $600 asking price for a set of replacement Fishman saddles is a greater expense than paying someone to rewire a Fly or NiteFly with Graphtech components. Just to throw my hat in the ring, I suggest that asking prices for Fishman Fly saddles be more grounded in reality, by way of being comparable to Graphtech prices. I’m happy to have my mind changed on the matter.

….


Post merged from other discussion:


Does anyone else share my first world problem?

Week to week, I find myself catching a Reverb listing for a beater Fly listed for (in my meager opinion) a grand over its worth, with a “Make an Offer” button. I submit an offer with a message apologizing in the event that the bid seems off-base, furthermore asking what number the seller had in mind. The seller responds that they’re considering my offer, and...one of seemingly three guys from the Facebook groups buys the thing for the full listing price that the seller had intended, from the get-go, to negotiate down from.

The Fly having sold for this price encourages subsequent sellers to increase their listing price. At this moment, there’s a high-price Fly on Reverb with symptoms of significant fingerboard delamination and a Make-an-Offer button to go with it...and I know that someone from the Facebook group is going to buy it outright. Best case scenario, they update their glowing NGD post with a comment about the guitar having “significant neck problems I was unaware of” and having received a partial refund. But subsequent Fly listings in even worse shape will then be listed for even more...and the same three Facebook collectors will be fighting for them. And I just know one of them is going to buy a Belew listing missing a power supply or some other essential component out from under me for the $15,000 Buy-It-Now price.
Summary of the Parker Guitars speculator market, 2020-2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
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vjmanzo
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

That’s unfortunate, Marc, and I have suspected for quite sometime that the very same people who wish there were more Flys available at the $1k-ish used price point are inadvertently inflating the used price point by purchasing high-priced used Flys in the manner you’ve described. I guess time will tell if “right now” is a bit of a peak bubble for Fly prices, but, I do still see some decent Flys without issues come up for sale in the $1400 ballpark. I don’t believe the demand is there with people outside of “Fly communities” (like this one!) to sustain the asking price for a used Fly listed above what the same Fly sold for new, but I could be wrong; I’ve seen a lot of mint-ish Flys listed for $4s/high $3s that eventually come back down to the mid-$2s where the presumably sell.

Unfortunately, I suspect that increased fees on Reverb and eBay plus taxes play a role in the increased asking price (not just for Flys); perhaps a significant role.
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by mmmguitar »

https://reverb.com/item/40059479-parker ... h-usa-ohsc

This listing gets a pass from me on three bases*:
- I’ve never paid that much for a warrantied guitar, much less a used one.
- I prefer pre-refined
- I would “devalue” it with mods. Why spend four grand (after tax) on a guitar that’s not going to be “finished” until I pump close to another grand into it?

*The exception to all three points, of course, is a Belew model. Sell me one.
Summary of the Parker Guitars speculator market, 2020-2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by Patzag »

I actually discovered that there is a speculative market for Flys now. I know of at least 2 individuals that buy cheap only with the intention to resell dear as fast as possible. Pretty sad. :cry:
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vjmanzo
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

Patzag wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:47 am I know of at least 2 individuals that buy cheap only with the intention to resell dear as fast as possible. Pretty sad. :cry:
Three cheers for capitalism! Can I interest you in a Fly spring for $150?!! 🤮
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ahmadimran
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by ahmadimran »

Hopefully not a trend that lasts. With more people coming here and gaining knowledge, perhaps the market of buyers for Parker Flys becomes one that is more informed.
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vjmanzo
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

ahmadimran wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:29 pm Hopefully not a trend that lasts. With more people coming here and gaining knowledge, perhaps the market of buyers for Parker Flys becomes one that is more informed.
Thanks, @ahmadimran; that's a great sentiment. There is quite a bit of misinformation out there about Flys; I know that that's disappointing for Ken, and, in some way, for all of us (e.g. you buy a used Fly with a bunch of frets in a ziplock baggie along with spare tubes of GHS fast fret!) :lol: Having @Ken Parker and other former Parker Guitars employees here as members has really helped us all learn a lot of these wonderful instruments.

I agree that I hope the price-gouging is not a trend that will last; when you think about how few of these instruments exist, and you get a sense of who really cares about them, I think it really is the same few hundred people mailing our guitars around the world! There's no need to profiteer off a niche community like that.
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by mmmguitar »

I don’t recall offhand if there’s a more appropriate thread for resale market speculation; so:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/174768776593?h ... 7675.l2557

Left to auction, this “player condition” ‘96 Deluxe sold for $1630 w/shipping and before tax.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/184841736772?h ... Sw8KRgoZdZ

This red ‘98 Deluxe has an opening bid of $2198 (including shipping). It’s interesting to me what a difference red vs green makes, in this case. Assuming the ‘98 receives more bids, the difference may end up being more than the cost to have the emerald green Deluxe refinished.

Such considerations are why I no longer pine for Deluxes - Given the current market, I could have Shazrock refinish my two Deluxes two or three times and still likely sell them at a profit over what I paid for them several years ago. Once again, I find myself wishing I’d hoarded more Flys, circa 2016. I bet I would still have all of them, too; telling myself each day that I hadn’t decided which was my favorite, yet.
Summary of the Parker Guitars speculator market, 2020-2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
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vjmanzo
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

Interesting, Marc; I was watching the green Deluxe as well—I do remember seeing “player condition” Deluxes go for $1,700 in 2016, but I think your point is that, if you waited a few weeks, you’d also see a Fly in the same condition show up for $1000, is that right? I do also remember seeing people asking $4k for mint Flys back then like we still see now.

In the current market, is it that people are asking more for Flys or that the market is lacking those sellers that list Flys for around $1k?
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by mmmguitar »

In either case, the brand seems to still be on the Steinberger trajectory (with aftermarket scarcity of premium models fueling the belief that sub-$500 import models with visible wear can now command a $500+ asking price).

My hope is that it’s due to players growing more appreciative and holding on to a Fly as their sleeper-brand #1, rather than just sitting on them like they’re crypto.
Summary of the Parker Guitars speculator market, 2020-2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

😑
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Alejandro
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by Alejandro »

I think the price issue is here to stay, and my guess is that it's only going to get worse. @vjmanzo you probably need to update the price estimate you have posted somewhere here brother lol. There are no Flys in excellent conditions under 2k that I'm aware of; and if one comes out, it won't last 5 minutes up on Reverb or eBay.
The fact is the Parker Fly is a revolutionary guitar that was under-appreciated for most of its history, and there is a LOT of interest now that they're not made anymore. Guitar players tend to be a conservative crowd running 50 years behind the rest of the world (hence the fact that lots of people like Telecasters and Stratocaster, and Les Pauls for that matter). You give them a cutting board with a neck, and they'll say it has 'lots of character'. That attitude is subsiding and lots of younger players are waking up to the Parker Flys. Add to that the collectibility issue. My guess is in 30 years a "pre-refined" Fly in excellent condition (and no mods) will cost you a fortune. So maybe we should just get over it and put a positive spin on it.
There are people all over this country killing each other and paying fortunes for baseball cards and Pokémon cards. What's wrong with paying 3k for an amazing guitar of which there are a few left for sale? There is a bubble on virtually every asset class in this country. Look at the price of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT). The bubble economy is being pumped by the level of money-printing and deficit-spending at the Fed and Gov respectively. So buy the damn Fly at 3k before you're looking at 5k for one.
With all honesty, I think they're underpriced. If a Fly brand new cost 3k in the year 2000, adjusted for inflation the same guitar would cost you around $4,650 today, except they're not sold anymore. There are no Flys brand new or stores that sell them. The Parker story is over, and it's only a matter of time for the price to reflect the scarcity of the item and the high demand.
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vjmanzo
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

Thanks for the thoughts, @Alejandro. Maybe you’re right; the sentence in the FAQs currently says:
If you are looking to buy a used Fly in good condition, budget between $1700 - $2500 depending on availability and condition; if you are willing to wait a month or two, and you keep an eye out for Flys on used market sites, you will very likely find one in that price range (this sentence last updated 3/2021).
I’m not sure that what’s written is untrue, but we’re a community here, so I’d welcome other thoughts and, in the absence of any real data, adjust the range. FWIW: I have seen Flys in good condition go for under $1700 recently albeit quickly. I am somewhat concerned about adjusting the range too high in response to what’s happening in the market right now (in these COVID conditions) and feeding the inflation, but, again: it’s not set in stone.

Do you really think that the more conservative mindset is subsiding in younger players? That’s also hard to assess, unfortunately. I see a lot of musicians in their late-teens to mid-twenties and, no judgment, but they seem to be drawn to the usual suspects of guitars or, occasionally, newer trends like Strandberg.

No doubt: there’s still interest in the Fly, but I don’t know how much of that is new interest; I wanted a Fly in the 90s when I was a kid, but it wasn’t until I grew up and got a job that I was able to make that happen. 🤪 If that’s primarily what’s happening now for other 30+-something-year-olds getting their first Fly (great as that is!) then I’m not sure that qualifies as new interest. I could be wrong!!

The “collectible” thing I totally get, but like Pokémon and other nostalgia trends that have blown up during the pandemic, it’s difficult to know how the prices will remain once people are able to do other things with their time besides looking up things to buy on the internet.

Just my two cents, which, due to market fluctuations and inflation, is really only worth about .0003 cents 😂
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

And another thing 😂:

Let’s talk about this near-mint Mojo that’s been up on eBay for a long while:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2005-PARKER-FL ... 890.l49286

I have no connection with this seller (I think?!) The seller is asking $50 less than that Fly sold for new in 2005, so, you’re right Alejandro: even if we just calculate for inflation it seems it should be selling for more.

I bet the seller would take an offer for a few hundred less since it’s been sitting up there with, presumably, no bites.

I’m just not convinced that we’re at the point where all of the collectors are snatching up the near-mint Flys before they’re all gone. When that Mojo sells, the same story will likely apply to another one just like it.

My personal opinion/suspicion is that the demand goes up among the few hundred of us that pay attention to these things in response to our own actions and apprehensions that “the demand is going up”. 😀 In other words: the price increase is self-inflicted 😑 Some people see a good deal on a Fly, buy it low, and sell it higher to the same people in the “Fly community” that saw it listed low; just the same few hundred people mailing our Flys back and forth across the globe 😜 We (Fly fans) can influence the used market value to some degree because, I feel, we are the market.

Does that line of thinking seem misguided? Something I’m overlooking?
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Alejandro
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by Alejandro »

You're right. These things are hard to prove conclusively, so there is a lot of subjective opinions. Whether the 'new interest' is really new or just a bunch of 30-somethings being able to buy their first Flys it's hard to say; but the price is going up (regardless), and they're really paying for it. The Collectors with deep pockets may be paying irrational amounts for the few mint guitars that are left, especially in unusual colors, but that's typically not the bulk of the used market out there. The guitars that are selling between 2.5k-3k are in 'excellent condition' but not mint, and they're the typical Ruby Red or Majik Blue. People are simply paying for it.
My guess is the collectibility issue will continue to distort and affect the prices in the 'excellent-condition' range too, and soon you'll see the "pre-refined" Flys sky rocket to a league of their own. I saw an old pair of Gen1 humbuckers sell for almost $400 in less than a week on Reverb. I had a hard time selling a pair of Gen2 brand new (in the box) for around $70 each. A few years ago, only a crazy person would have paid more for a used pair of Gen1.
Nostalgia items like baseball cards and NFTs may come crashing down to Earth after people begin to get out-and-about, but I doubt that will spread to the Fly market. Unlike baseball cards and pokemon cards (and unlike the US dollar itself) you can't just print Flys. The demand is there and it's impossible to meet given the limited supply. Once the bubble economy burst, the things that are NOT going to come down in price (at least not significantly) are the real, solid things that people legitimately need and want and for which the supply is extremely limited (hint: Pokemon cards are not among those things). And while you can make an argument for people spending exuberant amounts in the internet out of COVID-boredom, people will soon resume gigging and recording, and there will likely be higher demand for these instruments (this is another piece of speculation; no one knows for sure). My guess is the price is real, and it's here to stay. Thank the Fed for inflating the money supply, and thank the Gov for spending it into circulation.
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

Great thoughts here, @Alejandro; thanks for the counterpoint. 🙏 👍🏻
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

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Alejandro wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 7:22 am I saw an old pair of Gen1 humbuckers sell for almost $400 in less than a week on Reverb.
This is puzzling. Who’s collecting Fly pickups unaware that they never went out of production; and can be ordered through any Dimarzio dealer in the world? The only excuse I can come up with is that they *had* to have the 90s logo on the bobbin.
Summary of the Parker Guitars speculator market, 2020-2022: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

Yeah, I don’t get that either; unless it’s a collector, I suppose, that absolutely needed to have “period original” pickups. 👀
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by Alejandro »

https://reverb.com/item/37955600-parker ... -rare-gift

Here you go @vjmanzo

No one is collecting pickups VJ. They're probably restoring a pre-refined Fly to its original condition or getting rid of a Gen2 "upgrade", or maybe just stocking up on original parts. In the world I envision, the price of these things will continue to surge. In 30 years from now, you may come to regret every single pre-refined Fly you sold and every mod you made on the ones you held. The collectors will have the largest market share further exacerbating the supply and demand issues we've been discussing. They will command lots of cash for any prerefined Flys.

In addition to that, Ken Parker is old and will pass at some point (likely within the next 15-20 years). He might have been a lousy businessman, but his Fly creation was nothing short of ground-breaking and revolutionary (Hint: go run and have him autograph every Fly you own while he is alive). In my world, those pre-refined Flys will outlive him and outpocket us. You may be looking at a price range of 30k-60k for guitars in excellent condition (maybe even higher). This is nothing new. Look at some 50's and 60's Stratocasters and Les Pauls. They command mountains of cash, and they're not any better than a modern Stratocaster or Les Paul (in fact they're worse in every conceivable way). Fender still puts out 'replicas' and limited editions of those guitars, and they make TONS of money with them. The Parker story is over, brother, and there ain't a Fly replica you can buy 30 years from now (unless the company is reborn in some capacity; but still the original Ken Parker era Flys will continue to be in high demand regardless). So basically, what I'm saying is, the guy that bought the Gen1 pickups at $400 may look like a lunatic to you and me, but he may be ahead of the game in the sort of world I envision.
..................................................................................
Maybe we should do something about it. Seriously. Maybe we should open a GoFundMe account and have the Fly community and other interested people sum up enough cash to buy the brand and intellectual property rights from the owners. The last time I looked, the brand and patents were registered in Quebec Canada and annual registration payments were being made to maintain those rights. They're probably losing infinite amounts of money by simply holding the defunct Parker brand.
What I'm saying is, we can have a 'cooperative' community-owned business. I think this community deserves to have a new Parker Fly back (an even better and more high-end Parker Fly than the previous two generations), and Ken Parker himself may want to help in the Fly renaissance. This isn't impossible to accomplish, and it wouldn't be extremely expensive either once you crowd-source the investment funds. There could be a new model called the Fly Phoenix made entirely of carbon fiber like this (https://detroitsound.co/about/). There could be a Parker Fly Ferrari Limited Edition made in collaboration with the automaker. There could be an explosion in creativity in high-end Flys out there. The production would be a lot smaller than the original and their price range a lot higher 6k-9k for each. We would go back to the basic design with the wheel and ribbon cables: everything that made the Fly unique and special, and then some... But until something like that happens, you're living in the other wold, the one with a few guitars left and lots of people wanting them; and in that world, it's only natural the price continues to go up.
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Re: Marc Wants To Buy...

Post by vjmanzo »

Thanks for the added thoughts, Alejandro; I’ve enjoyed reading through your speculations/predictions!
Alejandro wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 9:07 am You may be looking at a price range of 30k-60k for guitars in excellent condition (maybe even higher).
Well...that would be nice! 🙃 I do plan to grow old and retire some day, and, if I start mentally preparing now, maybe I’ll be willing to sell a Fly by then! 🤪 though...I wonder what everything else will cost by then 😑

Alejandro wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 9:07 am the brand and patents were registered in Quebec Canada and annual registration payments were being made to maintain those rights.
The patents have long expired, the tooling is gone, and there’s no institutional memory left because nearly all of the talented folks that worked on Flys have moved on to other projects. There’s not really much to gain by obtaining the Parker brand name.

Not sure how much this would factor in to the hypothetical scenario, but I do know for certain that @Ken Parker is happy to have invented the Fly, but also quite happy to have moved on from that to his current project making acoustic archtop guitars, so Fly Clone, where Ken offers other insights about the Fly, is probably about as close as it will get to his involvement in a Parker-reboot of some sort.

Still fun to think about.
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